Developed Countries Set to Exceed Carbon Emission Targets

01 Nov 2023

According to a recent study, developed nations are poised to release an additional 3.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by 2030, surpassing the reduction goals outlined in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Key Points

Significant Emission Overshoot: Developed countries are facing a 38 percent overshoot in emissions, with the United States, the European Union, and Russia being responsible for 83 percent of this excess.
Among developed nations, only Norway and Belarus are currently on track to meet their 2030 emission reduction commitments.
Impact on Developing Nations: Developed countries' mitigation efforts affect the available carbon budget for developing nations, which require adequate carbon space to address their economic and social development challenges and ensure an equitable transition.
Currently, developed countries' NDCs for 2030 collectively propose a 36 percent reduction in emissions compared to their 2019 levels. This falls short of the global average of 43 percent required to preserve the 1.5°C target.
Responsibility of Developed Countries: In fulfilling their role as historical emitters and financially capable economies, developed nations must go beyond achieving the global average in emission reduction.
The projections also indicate that developed countries heavily rely on significantly intensifying emission reductions after 2030. Even if they achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, they would need more than four times the average annual reductions they accomplished from 1990 to 2020.
Emission Contribution: In a net-zero-by-2050 scenario, developed countries would collectively contribute over 40–50 percent of the remaining global carbon budget for the 1.5°C warming target, despite comprising less than a fifth of the world's population.
The report emphasizes that the climate actions of developed nations, both historical and proposed, do not demonstrate substantial emission reductions reflecting climate leadership.
Burden on Developing Countries: As a result, the responsibility for mitigating global warming shifts to developing countries, which presents a challenge given the lack of financial support for their transition, as previously pledged.