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IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - 3rd Installment

  • 05 Apr 2022

On 4th April, 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the third installment of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The report, prepared by the IPCC Working Group III (WG-III), focusses on the mitigation of climate change, i.e., the solutions necessary to halt global warming.

Key Highlights

1. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions

  • In 2019, global net anthropogenic GHG emissions were at 59 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), 54 per cent higher than in 1990. This emissions growth has been driven mainly by CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the industrial sector, as well as methane emissions.
  • But the average annual rate of growth slowed to 1.3 per cent per year in the period 2010-19, compared to 2.1 per cent per year in the period 2000-09.
  • At least 18 countries have reduced GHG emissions for longer than 10 years on a continuous basis due to decarbonisation of their energy system, energy efficiency measures and reduced energy demand.

2. Least Developed Countries’ Emissions

  • Carbon inequality remains pervasive as ever with Least Developed Countries (LDCs) emitting only 3.3 per cent of global emissions in 2019.
  • LDCs contributed less than 0.4 per cent of total historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry in the period 1850-2019.

3. Pledges to the Paris Agreement are Inadequate

  • Upon adding up the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced by countries till October 2021, the IPCC finds that it is likely that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in this century, thereby failing the Paris Agreement’s mandate.
  • In its best-case scenario, known as the C1 pathway, the IPCC outlines what the world needs to do to limit temperatures to 1.5°C, with limited or no ‘overshoot’.
  • To achieve the C1 pathway, global GHG emissions must fall by 43 per cent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, amounting to 31 GtCO2e in 2030. And the use of coal, oil, and gas must decline by 95 per cent, 60 per cent and 45 per cent by 2050 compared to 2019.

4. Abundant and Affordable Solutions Exist

  • Widespread ‘system transformations’ are required across the energy, buildings, transport, land and other sectors, to achieve the 1.5°C target and this will involve adopting low-emission or zero carbon pathways of development in each sector. But solutions are available at affordable costs.
  • The costs of low emissions technologies have fallen continuously since 2010. Their deployment, or usage, has increased multiple fold since 2010.
  • The report states with “high confidence” that “several mitigation options, notably solar energy, wind energy, electrification of urban systems, urban green infrastructure, energy efficiency, demand side management, improved forest — and crop / grassland management and reduced food waste and loss, are technically viable, are becoming increasingly cost effective and are generally supported by the public”.
  • Reducing fossil fuel use in the energy sector, demand management and energy efficiency in the industrial sector and adopting the principles of ‘sufficiency’ and efficiency in the construction of buildings are among the plethora of solutions outlined by the report.

5. Long-term Benefits of Cutting Emissions Outweigh Initial Costs

  • The IPCC states that low-cost climate mitigation options, i.e., those costing $100 per tCO2e or less, could halve global GHG emissions by 2030. In fact, the long-term benefits of limiting warming far outweigh the costs.
  • “Without taking into account the economic benefits of reduced adaptation costs or avoided climate impacts, global GDP would be just a few percentage points lower in 2050 if we take the actions necessary to limit warming to 2°C (3.6°F) or below, compared to maintaining current policies,” according to the report.

6. Sufficient Global Capital and Liquidity Exist to Close the Gaps

  • Financial flows fall short of the levels needed to achieve the ambitious mitigation goals, however. The gaps are the widest for the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) sector and for developing countries.
  • But the global financial system is large enough and “sufficient global capital and liquidity” exist to close these gaps, according to the IPCC.