Cyclone Formation & Intensification Factors Quantified

In March 2025, researchers from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information and Services (INCOIS, Hyderabad) quantified the oceanic and atmospheric contributions to cyclone development, improving prediction accuracy.

Key Points

Study of Major Cyclones: The research analyzed Cyclones Tauktae, Ockhi, Amphan, and Mocha, finding varied dominance of atmospheric and oceanic factors.
Cyclone Tauktae Case Study: Atmospheric factors contributed 54%, while oceanic factors accounted for 46% in Tauktae’s intensification.
Key Predictive Indicators Identified: Mid-atmospheric humidity, low-level absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, and tropical cyclone heat potential play critical roles.
Practical Applications: A forecasting tool is being developed for use by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other global agencies.
Relevance for Indian Coasts: With increasing cyclone intensity, particularly in the Arabian Sea, better predictions can aid disaster preparedness and evacuation planning.