Cooling in Atlantic and Pacific Oceans May Offer Temporary Relief

After months of record-high surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, cooling trends along the equator may signal some relief for vulnerable ecosystems, though the hurricane risk persists.

Key Points

Cooling Trends in the Atlantic and Pacific: Recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific is due to two climate phenomena: La Nina and Atlantic Nina. While La Nina in the Pacific often exacerbates hurricane conditions, Atlantic Nina may reduce hurricane risk by cooling waters that fuel storms.
Formation and Effects of La Nina and Atlantic Nina: La Nina, a well-known climate phenomenon, causes cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and impacts global weather. Its Atlantic counterpart, Atlantic Nina, is weaker but can still affect regional weather patterns by cooling the Atlantic and partially counteracting La Nina's effects.
Current Observations in 2024: In July and August 2024, meteorologists observed the development of an Atlantic Nina, with cooling in the equatorial Atlantic and expected La Nina conditions in the Pacific by October.
Hurricane Season Outlook: The combination of near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and La Nina's tendency to weaken wind shear could lead to stronger hurricanes, overshadowing any mitigating effects from Atlantic Nina.
Impact of Global Warming: Although the two Ninas might provide some temporary cooling relief, the overall trend suggests continued warming and heightened hurricane risks in the future.